The China TiO₂ market has entered a more complicated phase in July.

Prices have softened from the highs seen earlier this year. Some producers are cutting aggressively to secure orders and move volume, while others are holding firm on the back of stronger domestic and export books. The result is a market with unusually wide price dispersion: offers for comparable grades can now differ by as much as USD 400/ton.

Some buyers are expecting prices to fall much further. But the current market doesn't fully support that view.

The Standoff: Some Cut, Some Hold

Since early July, some manufacturers have reduced offers by roughly USD 30–150/ton to capture orders and lock in customer orders ahead of competitors. At the same time, producers with stronger export exposure or healthier order backlogs are choosing to defend price rather than follow every discount. They have less incentive to trade margin for volume, and their steadier offers are helping prevent the market from turning into a broad-based price collapse.

This is why the market should not be read simply as “prices are down.” It is better described as a deal-by-deal market, where supplier position, product grade, destination, payment terms, and available inventory matter more than the published number.

Most of the industry still leans bearish short term. As of early July, the FOB prices were around USD 2,300–2,500/ton. But the cost side hasn't loosened up to match. Sulfur and sulfuric acid remain firm, while ferrous sulfate, the byproduct that's been cushioning margins for sulfate-process producers, has been sliding. That leaves producers squeezed from both ends: high cost, low price, not much room left to cut.

Chloride Grades Are Winning the Export Race Gradually

China's TiO2 exports hit roughly 883,000 tons from January to May, up about 12.5% year on year. The exports of chloride grades rose by nearly 40%, indicating stronger overseas pull for higher-performance material and tightening of domestic chloride supply. The sulfate segment is facing a different set of pressures, demand remains softer and pricing is more flexible. Sulfur and sulfuric acid remain expensive. Meanwhile, ferrous sulfate, an important by-product that once helped support producer margins, has weakened. That puts producers under even more pressure.

Titanium ore prices have softened, but their influence on TiO₂ pricing is becoming less direct. In the current market, weaker ore prices do not directly translate into a corresponding drop in finished pigment prices.

So while sulfate-route material still faces demand pressure and more flexible pricing, we should not interpret general market softness as evidence of easy supply. For buyers who need chloride grades, the greater risk may be delayed availability rather than a large further price drop.

What Worth Watching

The next real signal will come from the leading producers, LB Group in particular. Until their next price notice lands, most of the market will keep negotiating deal by deal rather than committing to a direction.

For rigid demand, waiting for a much bigger drop probably isn't worth the risk. Selective discounts will remain available, especially where suppliers need volume, but a broad-based collapse looks unlikely while sulfur-related costs remain firm and chloride inventories stay tight.