The global paint and coatings market will reach $186 billion by 2017, rising 5.2 percent per year to 51.6 million metric tons by then, according to World Paint & Coatings, a new study from The Freedonia Group Inc., the Cleveland-based industry market research firm.

 

Architectural, manufacturing and specialty coatings should all see growth—although, ironically, volumes may be lower because the quality of coatings continues to improve in both developing and developed countries, requiring fewer coats, Freedonia said.

 

"Strong Rebound"

 

"Advances will be driven by a strong rebound in global building construction, particularly in North America, Europe, and Japan, which will fuel increased demand for architectural paint," said Freedonia analyst Kent Furst.

 

The pace should also pick up for manufacturing and specialty coatings, due to an improved outlook for motor vehicle production and overall industrial output.

 

Water-based coatings and other high-solids formulations will continue to gain in share over solvent-borne products in virtually all world markets, as paintmakers continue to reduce VOC emissions to comply with government regulations and consumer preferences.

 

The Regional Picture

 

The Asia/Pacific region will continue to be the largest and fastest-growing coatings market through 2017, rising to account for half of global demand, according to Freedonia.

 

Gains will be led by robust growth in China, the world's largest national coatings market, although advances will slow somewhat from the double-digit annual pace of 2002-12. Even faster growth is forecast for the large Indian market, while Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and other countries in Asia will see strong gains as well.

 

In North America, a marked turnaround in building construction activity will fuel healthy growth in coatings demand, while Western Europe and Japan will see similar (though slower) rebounds in the coatings market. 

 

Sector Outlook

 

Coatings demand in manufacturing applications will benefit from an uptick in world motor vehicle production, while an improvement in building construction activity will boost demand for furniture coatings.

 

Rising demand for protective coatings in industrial and oil and gas applications will give a bounce to maintenance and specialty markets, while increasing rates of motor vehicle ownership in moderate-income countries will benefit demand for both auto refinish paints and road and bridge coatings.

 

Still, architectural markets will continue to account for the majority of paint and coatings demand in 2017, Freedonia reported.

 

Demand for architectural paint will be driven by greater residential building activity in high-income countries, as well as rising urbanization and housing construction spending in the developing world.