China's TiO₂ market has remained relatively stable since China's National Day holiday, but the outlook is becoming more complicated. September's price increases are still supporting market quotations, while weak downstream demand and changing raw material costs are putting pressure on prices.

The two production routes are facing different market conditions. Sulfate-process prices are showing signs of stabilization, although weaker raw material costs could limit further gains. Meanwhile, chloride-process prices have edged lower despite tight delivery schedules.

Sulfate-Process TiO₂: Cost Support Is Weakening

For sulfate-process TiO₂, raw material costs are becoming less supportive.

One notable feature of the latest round of increases is the difference between higher- and lower-priced offers. Producers quoting at the higher end have generally made more modest increases, while actual price increases for lower-priced material have been more substantial. As a result, the price gap between producers is narrowing.

However, the current stability may be tested once the initial wave of orders has been fulfilled. With fewer new orders coming in, producers could face greater pressure to secure fresh business. Their pricing decisions will then depend more heavily on individual inventory levels, order books, cost positions and market positioning. Some may continue to hold firm, while others may make further price adjustments to win orders.

Meanwhile, sulfur inventories in China are rising, and sulfur prices have eased from their recent highs. Sulfuric acid prices have also weakened in some regions. If raw material costs continue to decline while demand remains weak, the cost support for sulfate-process TiO₂ could weaken further, leaving some producers with more room to lower their offers.

Chloride-Process TiO ₂: Prices Ease, Deliveries Remain Tight

Chloride-process TiO₂ prices have remained relatively stable over the past month, with a slight downward trend. However, deliveries from domestic producers remain tight, as many are still working through substantial order backlogs. Despite the softer price trend, existing orders continue to keep delivery schedules stretched. Prices may continue to ease in the coming weeks, but new orders and changes in delivery schedules will be worth watching.

In the current market, some producers may remain busy fulfilling existing orders without seeing enough new business to justify further price increases. As the market adjusts, prices may gradually come under pressure even while delivery times remain relatively long.

For buyers, it is important to look at both price and availability. A tight delivery schedule does not necessarily mean prices have reached a bottom, just as a price reduction does not guarantee immediate availability.

Outlook

Overall, TiO₂ prices are likely to remain stable, with some low-priced offers still having room to move higher. However, weak demand is likely to limit further gains across the market.

If producers can fulfill existing orders smoothly and continue to secure new orders at higher prices, prices should remain firm. But if new orders fail to pick up and raw material costs continue to weaken, price differences between producers may widen again, with some lowering their offers to win orders.

Buyers should plan purchases in stages based on their actual production needs. For those with confirmed demand, reliable supply and delivery commitments may be more valuable than chasing the lowest price in the short term.

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