As July begins, the titanium dioxide market has turned softer. Most producers have lowered prices, and order volumes are starting to pick up again. But the real story this week isn't how much prices dropped. It's what's driving them, and why buyers who keep waiting for a deep drop may be waiting too long.

Where the Market Stands: Stable but Softening

The off-season is now here. Since early July, most producers have trimmed prices by RMB 200 to RMB 1,000/ton. Only a few, mostly ones with strong order books or a product edge, have managed to hold firm. Leading producers are still quoting high, and the gap between their list price and the lowest deals in the market has now widened past RMB 2,000/ton.

Downstream sentiment remains cautious. Buyers are purchasing on essential needs only. It's the classic "buy on the rise, wait on the dip" mindset, and it's exactly what's keeping the market soft even though the cost picture underneath hasn't actually collapsed.

The Shift: Supply and Demand Are Back in Charge

This is the most important change in the market right now. For most of the H1 2026, prices were pushed higher by sulfur and sulfuric acid costs. That cost-driven logic is now taking a back seat.

Today, the balance between supply and demand is the core variable. Shipments are lagging behind production, inventories are building, and that shift is changing how producers think. With stock accumulating, moving volume has become more urgent than defending price.

Producer Strategy: Cut First, Win Orders, Secure Deliveries

The turn from H1 to H2 is always a key window. Some essential-demand orders were pushed into July, so once each producer's new pricing landed, the scramble for those orders started almost right away.

At the same time, a second pressure is building on the cost side. In regions like Southwest China, prices for the by-product ferrous sulfate have fallen, weakening the profit cushion producers had relied on. When that cushion shrinks, the risk of selling below cost rises, which gives producers even more reason to move inventory quickly rather than hold out.

The Risks Ahead: Downside Is Limited

Here's why the floor may be closer than it looks. Sulfur prices have rebounded recently, and combined with the drop in ferrous sulfate, producers are being squeezed from both sides.

Not every plant can respond the same way. Some can switch feed stock routes, using pyrite-based acid or smelter off-gas acid to manage cost, but others are locked into one route and don't have that option.

On top of that, normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz still faces multiple challenges, keeping upstream supply uncertain.

In short, price cuts have a bottom line. A rebound off the low can't be ruled out.

Our View: A Weak Range, Not a Free Fall

Cutting prices in the off-season is normal. Every phase just calls for a different playbook.What matters more right now is judgment. In a weak market, rumors of low prices spread quickly, and not all of them are real. Sorting genuine deals from market noise is essential before making decisions.

Our read is straightforward: after this round of July cuts, the market should settle into a period of relative stability. Expect small, occasional adjustments but not a sustained downtrend.

For buyers, the takeaway is clear. The current price is already close to the bottom, and the room for further decline is limited. If you have essential-demand orders, this is a good time to stock up. Waiting for a sharp, deeper drop is unlikely to pay off, and right now may well be the best window to place your order.