Market Analysis:
Currently, the price of titanium dioxide has shown a significant phase of recovery after touching the bottom. Domestic and international producers of both rutile and anatase titanium dioxide have announced price increases, ranging from 800-1500 RMB/ton, with some even implementing direct price hikes. These price increase notices reflect that after 7-8 months of sluggish market trends, the market for titanium dioxide has re-entered an upward trend in September, achieving a phase of recovery.
A characteristic of this round of price increases is that producers at the top end of the price range have raised prices more gently, while those at the bottom end have seen a more pronounced rebound. This has narrowed the price gap between products of the same grade and maintained a “centralized” trend, just at a higher level. The simultaneous rise at both high and low ends stimulates the end-market, creating elastic demand for seasonal stocking. Therefore, the domestic market’s sales pace is currently very fast. Additionally, producers' inventory levels are low, leading to some immediate payment and order issues for existing goods.
 

Analyst Insights on the Price Increase:
1.The off-season from June to August was nearing its end, and further price reductions would have exacerbated the wait-and-see attitude of buyers. A counter-cyclical increase can stimulate elastic demand and serves as a preheating for the traditional peak seasons of September and October.
2.Major producers have sufficient foreign trade export orders, indicating no short-term pressure.
3.Most producers have inventory levels of 10-30 days and have not built up significant stock. Coupled with recent rapid sales, there is no short-term inventory pressure.
4.Titanium ore has slightly rebounded, while the prices of liquid alkali, natural gas, and sulfuric acid have surged. In some regions, sulfuric acid prices have risen to 900-1100 RMB/ton.
5.Producers in South China and other regions are affected by environmental and power restrictions, leading to production limitations or shutdowns, which exacerbates the shortage of spot supply.
6.Producers are also subjectively aiming for a recovery to achieve better economic benefits.
 

Factors for Caution:
1.Demand has not shown significant improvement. The current temporary surge only preempts September’s demand. Without demand support, prices may revert to weakness.
2.Some producers have made only slight rebounds, essentially adjusting their pricing forecasts and using discounts to achieve the first round of price hikes.
3.A few producers remain cautious about the long-term market and have planned for future supply and pricing, aiming to maintain or narrow the price gap.
 

Market Forecast:
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market remains strong, with over 20 producers announcing price hikes. Analysts believe that after the struggle between supply and demand, the market has achieved a phase of recovery. The demand from end-users has bypassed the stalemate and observation phase, resulting in increased procurement and a release of the first round of elastic demand. This has caused spot shortages among producers with previously low inventory levels, leading to issues such as payment and order delays for certain products. However, this wave of positive market activity is essentially drawing from future demand for the peak seasons, meaning the peak season has not yet arrived. Future market conditions may reflect a “temporal misalignment,” with August preparing for September and September for October. The trend in the short term shows a continued counter-cyclical rebound, but the future market performance will depend on the actual peak season demand. Currently, actual transaction prices are determined on a case-by-case basis depending on order, volume, and payment terms.