September is now underway, and the China TiO₂ market has entered a period of relative stability after the price adjustments seen at the end of August.

The overall trend remains a mix of stability at the lower end, modest rebounds in low-priced offers, and further declines at the higher end. Price gaps between comparable grades continue to narrow. Both the high and low ends are gradually moving toward more reasonable levels, with the overall market showing a slight upward bias.

Last week, we highlighted the unusual price movements at the end of August, with some producers cutting prices while some regional producers moved in the opposite direction. The impact of these moves is becoming clearer this week.

More importantly, the rebound at the lower end is now spreading beyond a few regional producers. More producers with relatively low prices are now seeing strong order books and low inventory levels. Some have stopped negotiating further and are now holding firm on their offers. Small price increases are beginning to take effect.

Demand Is Improving, but Not Strongly

On the demand side, some distributors and end users have already taken the opportunity to restock at lower prices. They are now waiting for delivery, which is putting some pressure on producers to fulfill existing orders.

However, the orders placed in early September may have brought forward part of the demand that would normally have appeared in October and November.

The traditional peak season has not brought a strong boost to demand so far. But market activity remains better than during the usual off-season.

Supply Side Shows Mixed Signals

On the supply side, several producers have taken the lead in announcing price increases. This has encouraged faster shipments and quicker inventory turnover. Some factories are also starting to expect further price increases, while others remain cautious and are waiting to see how the market develops.

There are two main reasons behind this wait-and-see approach.

First, sulfuric acid prices in Southwest China have continued to decline, while ferrous sulfate prices have increased. This means some producers still have room to adjust their prices lower, depending on their cost structure.

Second, there are still doubts about whether the recent market rebound can be sustained. Some producers are concerned that demand may not be strong enough to support higher prices, so they are reluctant to follow the increases too quickly and prefer to wait and see how the market develops.

Producers are taking different approaches based on their own situation. Some are raising prices, some are cutting, and others are holding steady.

Outlook

The China TiO₂ market remained weak this week, but the recent price increase announcements have started to influence producer sentiment.

Low-priced producers are becoming less willing to negotiate. Small price increases have begun to materialize, narrowing the gap with higher-priced material and gradually pushing the overall price range higher.

Last week's mixed price movements are now starting to affect the market. Lower-priced material is beginning to rebound, while higher-priced material continues to come down. The price range is narrowing while moving slightly higher.

Demand remains mixed. Some buyers are placing orders and building inventory, while others continue to purchase only as needed. This is a normal pattern in a weak market.

In the short term, the traditional peak season and the first signs of a market bottom are giving the market some support. Whether this momentum can continue remains to be seen.

Actual transaction prices are still negotiated case by case, depending on the order, volume, payment terms and other commercial conditions.