The China TiO₂ market saw an unusual situation in the final week of August. Major producers made moderate price cuts, while some regional producers went in the opposite direction, raising prices by around USD 100/ton.

Price increases and decreases happening in the same week are rarely seen in the TiO₂ market. So what is behind this unusual move?

Why Are Some Producers Raising Prices?

First, prices are already close to the cost floor.

Sulfur and sulfuric acid prices have come down from their previous highs, but they are still relatively expensive. With raw material costs remaining high, there is very limited room for further price cuts.

Second, some producers already have enough low-priced orders.

Several producers secured thousands of tons of orders when prices were lower. Their focus has now shifted from getting new orders to delivering the orders they already have. With less pressure to find new business, they have little reason to reduce prices further.

Third, higher prices may help speed up payment.

The expectation of a price increase can encourage buyers to settle earlier invoices, which improves cash flow.

Are TiO₂ Prices Still Too High?

Some people may point out that current TiO₂ prices are still high compared with the beginning of the year.

However, raw material costs are also much higher than they were in Q1. From a cost perspective, the difference is not as large as the headline price suggests.

After a long period of weak market conditions, some buyers initially questioned why certain producers were raising prices against the trend. But producers cannot operate at a loss indefinitely. It was only a matter of time before prices returned to more rational levels.

What Could This Mean for September?

The recent price movements are worth watching for three reasons.

1. An early sign of stabilization

The first signs of a market bottom may be appearing. When some producers start raising prices at the lower end, low-priced offers have less influence on the overall market. At the same time, producers with higher prices have less incentive to keep cutting.

The market may be starting to move toward a more balanced price range.

2. Restocking demand may be returning

As more market participants begin to believe that prices are close to the bottom, distributors and end users may start looking for opportunities to restock. This could bring more inquiries and orders back into the market.

3. The traditional peak season is approaching

September and October are traditionally stronger months for many downstream industries in China. If restocking demand and normal production demand pick up at the same time, the market could get some much-needed support.

Outlook

Looking ahead to September, the market is likely to move toward stability with a slight upward bias.

Lower-priced offers may gradually move higher, while higher-priced offers could continue to come down. If this happens, the price gap between producers should narrow.

Of course, producers are not all in the same position. Inventory levels, production costs, export exposure, brand strength, and product quality all vary.

The overall supply-demand balance has not fundamentally changed. Supply still exceeds demand in the broader market. But the recent signs of price stabilization, together with improving restocking sentiment and the approach of the September–October peak season, could give the market some room to recover.

For buyers, this is a point worth watching.

As low-priced supply becomes less available and the market gradually stabilizes, prices could start moving higher again. Buyers should consider their own production schedules and purchasing needs when deciding when to place orders.

In a volatile market, having a supplier who can provide stable supply and reliable delivery can be more valuable than simply finding the lowest quotation.

As always, actual transaction prices depend on the specific order, including volume, payment terms, and other commercial conditions.