As March came to an end and April began, the titanium dioxide market entered a period of relative stability after the recent price hikes. At the same time, producers are already preparing new pricing strategies for April based on current orders and inventory levels.

The first quarter saw a rare situation in the past 20 years: three price hikes in a single month, with a total increase of USD 350 per ton. March was a rollercoaster for the TiO₂ market. Quotation validity periods became shorter. Price increases, order suspensions, and delayed shipments became more common. Low-priced supply started to disappear, producers were in no rush to move inventory, and spot cargo often came with a premium.

Where Did All the Product Go?

Inventory has clearly moved downstream. Most producers are now running with low stock levels. Both local and overseas distributors, as well as end users, have built up inventories to varying degrees. Traders, in particular, are holding back stock and waiting for higher prices. At the same time, export volumes have increased, putting more pressure on delivery schedules.

Under such conditions, the market is moving fast. Prices could move toward USD 2,600/ton.

That said, some buyers are still able to find relatively low-priced material in the market. This mainly comes from inventories built up by certain distributors before the price increases.

There are generally two situations. Some distributors are deliberately holding back inventory, waiting for higher prices and with no urgency to sell. Others are holding older inventory that has been slow-moving due to a limited customer base.

However, the overall volume of such stock is quite limited, so it is unlikely to last. As market conditions continue to strengthen, suppliers are becoming firmer and are increasingly unwilling to sell at lower prices.

Why Supply Matters More Than Price Right Now

At this point, supply is a greater concern than price. We can understand TiO₂ price movements by looking at the supply side. Sulfur and sulfuric acid prices remain high, and previous price increases have not significantly reduced cost pressure for producers. Some producers have actually raised their operating rates but are afraid to take too many orders. Why? Because taking too many orders could mean that the new prices might not cover future costs. This creates a cycle where producers continue to push prices higher.

The current price level may well represent the lowest point for April and May. At a time like this, watching may not be as smart as acting. 

Why China TiO2 Exports Performed Strongly in Q1

In our previous article, we looked at the cost side, especially sulfur and sulfuric acid. Now let’s talk about why China’s titanium dioxide exports performed so strongly in the first quarter of this year. For overseas buyers, understanding these drivers can support better sourcing decisions.

1. Chinese New Year timing

Shipments around the holiday were either pulled forward or delayed. That created a short-term surge in demand for Chinese supply.

2. Anti-dumping investigations by the UK, India, and others

Some countries started or restarted anti-dumping probes on Chinese TiO₂. Before any new duties took effect, many global buyers increased their order volumes to build safety stock. This suggests that even with trade barriers, Chinese TiO₂ remains a competitive choice.

3. Worldwide energy shortages

Energy constraints in some overseas regions, particularly affected by the Middle East situation, have limited local production. As a result, China’s stable and scalable supply has taken on a larger role in meeting global demand. This is especially true for chloride-process TiO₂, which continues to gain recognition for its balance of cost and performance.

4. Steady demand growth in many overseas markets

More and more developing countries are sourcing from China. Beyond cost advantages, China also offers large production capacity, flexible delivery, and the ability to handle both bulk orders and urgent shipments.

5. Rising demand in new energy and solar

Demand from sectors such as new energy and solar applications is expanding internationally. What used to be niche segments are now becoming meaningful growth drivers, especially for higher-grade products.

Overall, the growth in exports reflects a combination of short-term factors and underlying demand. While some front-loading of orders may lead to temporary demand shifts, the fundamentals supporting China’s role in the global TiO₂ supply chain remain solid.

For buyers, this means China continues to offer a reliable and competitive supply option, especially in a market where stability and responsiveness are becoming more important.

Outlook

Last week, domestic TiO₂ prices continued their upward trend. According to analysts at Titanos, several producers, including Citic Titanium and Yibin Tianyuan, announced price increases of USD 150-200 per ton. One major producer raised prices by USD 100 per ton without even issuing a formal notice. With solid order backlogs, low inventory, and strong cost support, producers are in a bullish mood.

March order books looked good, both for domestic sales and exports. The traditional peak season lived up to its name.

The TiO₂ market is not used to such frequent price increases. For producers, the challenge is that they are hesitant to quote prices, partly due to market volatility, but mainly because supply is so tight. A few producers have even broken lower-priced deals because they could not deliver.

To be honest, prices rising too fast is not necessarily a good thing. Demand could get pulled forward too much, and when prices hit a certain ceiling, there is a real risk of a turnaround.

In the short term, April prices are likely to remain firm. Supply will stay tight, and prices will not go down. Some producers will limit order volumes. As always, final prices will depend on each order individually.